June 2025 Visa Bulletin Analysis: DV-2025 July Cut-Offs & August Predictions

DV-2025 July Cut-Offs: June 2025 Visa Bulletin Breakdown

The U.S. Department of State has released the June 2025 Visa Bulletin, which includes the Diversity Visa (DV-2025) cut-off numbers governing July 2025 interviews. In this post, we’ll summarize the official regional cut-off numbers for DV Lottery selectees, discuss how these numbers have changed in recent months, and explore why some regions – notably Europe – are seeing slower movement compared to past DV cycles. We’ll also provide data-driven insights into the causes (such as visa allocation limits, embassy backlogs, and refusal rates) and offer predictions for the August 2025 cut-offs by region. Finally, we conclude with tips for DV-2025 selectees as the fiscal year approaches its end.

July 2025 DV Interview Cut-Offs by Region (Official Numbers)

According to the June 2025 Visa Bulletin, the following DV-2025 lottery rank cut-offs apply for interviews scheduled in July 2025 (Fiscal Year 2025). Applicants with case numbers below these cut-offs are eligible for an interview in July, while those at or above these numbers must wait for a later bulletin:

• Africa (AF): 45,000 (Exceptions: Algeria 44,950; Egypt 40,000; Morocco 34,500)
• Asia (AS): 9,000 (Exceptions: Iran 8,950; Nepal 8,950)
• Europe (EU): 19,000 (Exceptions: Russia 18,950; Uzbekistan 12,000)
• North America: 20 (Bahamas only – remains current)
• Oceania (OC): 1,650
• South America & Caribbean (SA): 2,450

What this means: For example, an EU selectee with case number 18,500 is now current; 19,500 would not be. Africa leads with a 45k cutoff, while North America stays effectively current all year, and Oceania/SA approach their limits.

Recent Trends: How July Cut-Offs Changed from Previous Months

July’s numbers show modest advancement from the prior month’s bulletin, with some regions barely moving. The progression over May → June → July is:

• Africa (AF): 35,000 → 42,500 → 45,000
• Asia (AS): 6,500 → 8,250 → 9,000
• Europe (EU): 16,000 → 17,500 → 19,000
• Oceania (OC): 1,550 → 1,550 → 1,650
• South America & Caribbean (SA): 2,250 → 2,300 → 2,450
• North America (NA/Bahamas): 20 → 20 → 20

Chart: DV-2025 Regional Cut-Off Progression (May–July 2025)

This line chart illustrates how the official rank cut-offs have evolved over the past three months.

Comparison to Past DV Cycles

In DV-2024, Europe went current by September with a cutoff of 50,000 (except Uzbekistan at 17,000), and Africa also reached current status by mid-cycle. By contrast, DV-2025’s Europe sits at just 19,000 in July, indicating a more restrained progression this year.

Why Are Some Regions (Like Europe) Advancing Slower This Year?

• Oversubscription & Allocation Limits: Europe has over 28,000 selectees but only a 7% per-country cap (~3,600 visas), forcing separate cut-offs (Uzbekistan 12,000; Russia 18,950) and limiting overall EU movement.
• High Approval Rates: With ~96% approval, Europe sees few refusals, leaving less slack for upward cut-off jumps. Africa’s ~84% approval allows larger movements as unused visas reallocate.
• Processing Constraints: EU cases often interview in third-country posts (Warsaw, etc.), plus NVC backlogs capping monthly scheduling capacity.
• Smaller DV Pool: DV-2025 has ~52,000 visas available (down from 55k), requiring tighter cut-off management to prevent exhausting visas before September 30.

Regional Case Summary

*”Highest Issued Case” = highest case number issued a visa.*

Case Status Breakdown

A quick view of overall DV-2025 processing:

• At NVC (Processing Center): 48,926 cases
• Issued: 27,418 cases
• Ready: 13,677 cases
• Refused: 1,603 cases
• Refused 221(g): 2,864 cases
• Administrative Processing (AP): 158 cases
• In Transit: 70 cases
• Transferred: 59 cases

Observations & Tips

• Africa: Big jump means nearly all numbers below 45k will soon interview.
• Asia: Steady rise; keep documents updated.
• Europe: Progress is cautious; full current likely not until September.
• Oceania: Expect modest increase to ~1,750 or current.
• South America & Caribbean: Nearing current at ~2,600.
• North America (Bahamas): Remains current at 20.

Tip: If your number is below your region’s current cutoff, stay ready—interview notice could come at any time!

August 2025 Cut-Off Predictions by Region

Only two bulletins remain before September 30. Here’s our outlook for August:

• Africa: Likely current or ~50,000–55,000 if still listing.
• Asia: ~11,000 (Iran/Nepal ~10,500).
• Europe: ~25,000 (Uzbekistan ~15,000; Russia ~24,500).
• Oceania: ~1,750 or current.
• South America & Caribbean: Current or ~2,600.
• North America (Bahamas): 20.

Interactive Charts & Trends

The charts below visualize issued visas, cut-offs, historical trends, and our predictions.

Chart 1: Visas Issued by Region

Chart 2: Issuance vs. DV Cut-Offs

Chart 3: Historical DV Cut-Off Trends (Oct 2024 – Jul 2025)

Chart 4: Unofficial July & August Predictions

Conclusion & Next Steps for DV-2025 Selectees

DV-2025 is in its final stretch. Africa and SA wrap up early; Asia moves under country caps; Europe needs a big August jump for high-number cases. If you’re below your region’s August projection, stay ready and watch for your 2NL. High-number Europe cases should have a Plan B. Stay informed, act quickly on notices, and best of luck in the final bulletins!