DV-2025: Safe Case Numbers by Region (and Early DV-2026 Predictions)
If you’ve been selected in the Diversity Visa (DV) Lottery, one big question is looming: Is my case number “safe”? Will your regional rank number be low enough to get an interview before the program year ends? In this post, we’ll break down safe case number ranges for DV-2025 by region – Africa, Asia, Europe, Oceania, South America (including the Caribbean), and North America – and share early predictions for DV-2026. We’re diving straight into the numbers that matter to you.
By analyzing official U.S. State Department data, we estimate which case numbers are essentially guaranteed an interview (“safe”) and which are borderline. We’ll also consider trends like selectee density, historical issuance patterns, and this year’s Visa Bulletin progression.
Why “Safe Numbers” Matter in DV Lottery
Every DV selectee is assigned a case number within a region. Lower numbers are called for interview first, but not all will get a chance by September 30. The State Department selects more entrants than available visas (up to 55,000 worldwide, ~51,350 for DV-2025). About 131,000 individuals (selectees + family) were notified for DV-2025 – far more than the visas available – to account for no-shows and ineligibles. A “safe” number is one that, given historical and current pacing, is virtually certain to be reached.
DV-2025: Safe Case Number Ranges by Region
These ranges are very likely to be scheduled by September 2025:
Africa (AF)
Case numbers go up to ~86,000, but as of June the cutoff is 42,500 (Algeria 42,250; Egypt 36,250; Morocco 30,000). Africa often goes current by year-end.
Safe Range: Up to 50,000 is virtually guaranteed; many into 70,000–80,000 will likely be reached (most countries).
Asia (AS)
Numbers reach ~29,000. June cutoff is 8,250 (Nepal/Iran 8,000). Asia cutoffs have risen steadily.
Safe Range: Under 9,000 for all; most other countries safe up to 15,000+.
Europe (EU)
Numbers up to ~41,000. June cutoff is 17,500 (Russia 17,450; Uzbekistan 10,250). EU often accelerates late.
Safe Range: Up to 25,000 very safe; many into the 30,000s. Uzbekistan >15,000 more at risk.
Oceania (OC)
Numbers up to ~3,800. June cutoff is 1,550, but OC almost always goes current.
Safe Range: All case numbers safe.
South America & Caribbean (SA)
Numbers up to ~4,175. June cutoff is 2,300, but SA typically goes current.
Safe Range: All case numbers safe.
North America (NA)
Only Bahamas, numbers up to 23, current at 20.
Safe Range: All case numbers safe.
Looking Ahead: Early DV-2026 Safe Number Predictions
Based on DV-2024/2025 trends, here’s what “safe” may look like in DV-2026:
- Africa: Up to ~50,000 safe; many into 70,000–80,000 likely (with country exceptions).
- Asia: Nepal/Iran ~9,000; others ~15,000; >20,000 variable.
- Europe: Up to ~40,000 safe; Uzbekistan may cap ~15,000.
- Oceania, SA, NA: All numbers safe.
Quick Reference Table
| Region | DV-2025 Safe Max | DV-2026 Predicted Safe |
|---|---|---|
| Africa | 50,000 | 50,000 |
| Asia | 9,000 | 9,000 |
| Europe | 25,000 | 40,000 |
| Oceania | All | All |
| South America & Caribbean | All | All |
| North America | All | All |
Interactive Charts & Trends
Visualize our key data points and predictions.
Chart 1: Visas Issued by Region
Chart 2: Issuance vs. DV Cut-Offs
Chart 3: Historical DV Cut-Off Trends (Oct 2024 – May 2025)
Chart 4: DV-2026 Safe Number Predictions
As always, keep an eye on the Visa Bulletin updates each month. They will confirm the cut-off numbers for your region as the year goes on. We’ll update our insights as more information on DV-2026 emerges. In the meantime, congratulations on being selected and good luck on your DV journey! Keep your documents ready, respond to any inquiries quickly, and may your number be called soon.
Disclaimer:
The information presented on this page is for informational purposes only and is not an official statement or representation by any government agency. The data displayed is derived from internal analysis and is not verified by any official or governmental source. We make no guarantees as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided. Users should independently verify any details before making decisions based on this data. By using this information, you agree that we are not liable for any errors or omissions and that it should not be relied upon as legal or official guidance.