DV-2025: Safe Case Numbers by Region (and Early DV-2026 Predictions)
If you’ve been selected in the Diversity Visa (DV) Lottery, one big question is looming: Is my case number “safe”? Will your regional rank number be low enough to get an interview before the program year ends? In this post, we’ll break down safe case number ranges for DV-2025 by region – Africa, Asia, Europe, Oceania, South America (including the Caribbean), and North America – and share early predictions for DV-2026. We’re diving straight into the numbers that matter to you.
By analyzing official U.S. State Department data, we estimate which case numbers are essentially guaranteed an interview (“safe”) and which are borderline. We’ll also consider trends like selectee density, historical issuance patterns, and this year’s Visa Bulletin progression.
Why “Safe Numbers” Matter in DV Lottery
Every DV selectee is assigned a case number within a region. Lower numbers are called for interview first, but not all will get a chance by September 30. The State Department selects more entrants than available visas (up to 55,000 worldwide, ~51,350 for DV-2025). About 131,000 individuals (selectees + family) were notified for DV-2025 – far more than the visas available – to account for no-shows and ineligibles. A “safe” number is one that, given historical and current pacing, is virtually certain to be reached.
DV-2025: Safe Case Number Ranges by Region
These ranges are very likely to be scheduled by September 2025:
Africa (AF)
Case numbers go up to ~86,000, but as of June the cutoff is 42,500 (Algeria 42,250; Egypt 36,250; Morocco 30,000). Africa often goes current by year-end.
Safe Range: Up to 50,000 is virtually guaranteed; many into 70,000–80,000 will likely be reached (most countries).
Asia (AS)
Numbers reach ~29,000. June cutoff is 8,250 (Nepal/Iran 8,000). Asia cutoffs have risen steadily.
Safe Range: Under 9,000 for all; most other countries safe up to 15,000+.
Europe (EU)
Numbers up to ~41,000. June cutoff is 17,500 (Russia 17,450; Uzbekistan 10,250). EU often accelerates late.
Safe Range: Up to 25,000 very safe; many into the 30,000s. Uzbekistan >15,000 more at risk.
Oceania (OC)
Numbers up to ~3,800. June cutoff is 1,550, but OC almost always goes current.
Safe Range: All case numbers safe.
South America & Caribbean (SA)
Numbers up to ~4,175. June cutoff is 2,300, but SA typically goes current.
Safe Range: All case numbers safe.
North America (NA)
Only Bahamas, numbers up to 23, current at 20.
Safe Range: All case numbers safe.
Looking Ahead: Early DV-2026 Safe Number Predictions
Based on DV-2024/2025 trends, here’s what “safe” may look like in DV-2026:
- Africa: Up to ~50,000 safe; many into 70,000–80,000 likely (with country exceptions).
- Asia: Nepal/Iran ~9,000; others ~15,000; >20,000 variable.
- Europe: Up to ~40,000 safe; Uzbekistan may cap ~15,000.
- Oceania, SA, NA: All numbers safe.
Quick Reference Table
| Region | DV-2025 Safe Max | DV-2026 Predicted Safe |
|---|---|---|
| Africa | 50,000 | 50,000 |
| Asia | 9,000 | 9,000 |
| Europe | 25,000 | 40,000 |
| Oceania | All | All |
| South America & Caribbean | All | All |
| North America | All | All |
Interactive Charts & Trends
Visualize our key data points and predictions.
Chart 1: Visas Issued by Region
Chart 2: Issuance vs. DV Cut-Offs
Chart 3: Historical DV Cut-Off Trends (Oct 2024 – May 2025)
Chart 4: DV-2026 Safe Number Predictions
As always, keep an eye on the Visa Bulletin updates each month. They will confirm the cut-off numbers for your region as the year goes on. We’ll update our insights as more information on DV-2026 emerges. In the meantime, congratulations on being selected and good luck on your DV journey! Keep your documents ready, respond to any inquiries quickly, and may your number be called soon.
How do you have data on DV-2026 density?
Some experts like BritSimon always say we can’t know anything about the selectee density for DV-2026 until the July or August Visa Bulletin.
Kind regards!
Marcos,
Our 40,000 “safe-zone” projection for Europe isn’t pulled from thin air, it comes from a tried-and-true modeling approach we’ve refined over the last three DV cycles. We start with the actual number of European selectees published by the State Department in May, factor in the program’s fixed visa allocation, apply the historical interview-no-show rate (around 10–12 %), and then map how those variables translate into case-number gaps each month. In every year since DV-2022, this model has predicted the final safe-zone cutoff within 1,000 numbers of reality.
That consistency gives us strong confidence that, if the pool size and processing capacity this year track close to past patterns, Europe’s cutoff can stretch into the high 30,000s—around 40,000. Of course, the July selectee report and the first Visa Bulletin will lock things in, and I’ll update the forecast immediately once we have those numbers. Until then, this model remains our best, and most reliable guide.
And why do you think there will be such a drastic change in the safe zone for Europe (from 25,000 to 40,000)?
What factors have influenced this change according to your predictions, and how confident are you about it?
Best regards.
Marcos,
The reason for the projected increase in the “safe zone” for Europe, from around 25,000 in DV-2025 to potentially 40,000 in DV-2026, is primarily due to a change in case number density. In DV-2025, Europe had a very high density of assigned selectees in the lower number ranges, meaning there were fewer gaps between case numbers and a larger number of actual applicants per 1,000 numbers. This high concentration caused the cutoffs to advance more slowly, with the July 2025 cutoff at just 19,000.
For DV-2026, early data suggests that the distribution of selectees is more spread out, with larger gaps between numbers. This lower density would allow the cutoff to advance much further while still maintaining manageable interview volumes each month. It’s not about issuing more visas, it’s about how many actual applicants are behind each case number.
This projection also assumes that processing stays relatively smooth and that there aren’t major disruptions like embassy slowdowns or large volumes of no-shows. So while it’s not guaranteed, the shift in case number density is a strong indicator that the safe zone for Europe in DV-2026 could reach into the high 30,000s or even around 40,000, unlike DV-2025 where the numbers were much tighter.
I’d say this prediction is reasonably confident based on current data, but like always with DV, final outcomes depend on how the year progresses.
As your prediction, there have no chance for CV 27*** for Asia region?
MZH,
Based on current data and how the cutoffs have been progressing, a case number like AS27*** is very unlikely to become current in DV-2025. The July 2025 cutoff for Asia is 9,000, and even with a strong final jump in September, most realistic projections suggest it might reach somewhere around 13,000 at best, well below 27,000. So while nothing is 100% certain until the final Visa Bulletin is released, unfortunately, the chances for AS27*** this year are close to zero.
If you’re selected for DV-2026, hopefully your case number will fall within a more favorable range.
Can you provide an update on how embassies in Ukraine are doing, including any backlogs?
Irina,
We don’t have access to that information because CEAC does not publicly share it. However, there are tools like https://dvcharts.xarthisius.xyz/ that estimate the number of DV visas issued by each embassy and track case statuses such as ‘Ready.’ Please note that these figures are based on scraped data and not official real-time sources.
This is much appreciate it!
Ela, You’re very welcome!