DV-2025: Safe Case Numbers by Region (and Early DV-2026 Predictions)
If you’ve been selected in the Diversity Visa (DV) Lottery, one big question is looming: Is my case number “safe”? Will your regional rank number be low enough to get an interview before the program year ends? In this post, we’ll break down safe case number ranges for DV-2025 by region – Africa, Asia, Europe, Oceania, South America (including the Caribbean), and North America – and share early predictions for DV-2026. We’re diving straight into the numbers that matter to you.
By analyzing official U.S. State Department data, we estimate which case numbers are essentially guaranteed an interview (“safe”) and which are borderline. We’ll also consider trends like selectee density, historical issuance patterns, and this year’s Visa Bulletin progression.
Why “Safe Numbers” Matter in DV Lottery
Every DV selectee is assigned a case number within a region. Lower numbers are called for interview first, but not all will get a chance by September 30. The State Department selects more entrants than available visas (up to 55,000 worldwide, ~51,350 for DV-2025). About 131,000 individuals (selectees + family) were notified for DV-2025 – far more than the visas available – to account for no-shows and ineligibles. A “safe” number is one that, given historical and current pacing, is virtually certain to be reached.
DV-2025: Safe Case Number Ranges by Region
These ranges are very likely to be scheduled by September 2025:
Africa (AF)
Case numbers go up to ~86,000, but as of June the cutoff is 42,500 (Algeria 42,250; Egypt 36,250; Morocco 30,000). Africa often goes current by year-end.
Safe Range: Up to 50,000 is virtually guaranteed; many into 70,000–80,000 will likely be reached (most countries).
Asia (AS)
Numbers reach ~29,000. June cutoff is 8,250 (Nepal/Iran 8,000). Asia cutoffs have risen steadily.
Safe Range: Under 9,000 for all; most other countries safe up to 15,000+.
Europe (EU)
Numbers up to ~41,000. June cutoff is 17,500 (Russia 17,450; Uzbekistan 10,250). EU often accelerates late.
Safe Range: Up to 25,000 very safe; many into the 30,000s. Uzbekistan >15,000 more at risk.
Oceania (OC)
Numbers up to ~3,800. June cutoff is 1,550, but OC almost always goes current.
Safe Range: All case numbers safe.
South America & Caribbean (SA)
Numbers up to ~4,175. June cutoff is 2,300, but SA typically goes current.
Safe Range: All case numbers safe.
North America (NA)
Only Bahamas, numbers up to 23, current at 20.
Safe Range: All case numbers safe.
Looking Ahead: Early DV-2026 Safe Number Predictions
Based on DV-2024/2025 trends, here’s what “safe” may look like in DV-2026:
- Africa: Up to ~50,000 safe; many into 70,000–80,000 likely (with country exceptions).
- Asia: Nepal/Iran ~9,000; others ~15,000; >20,000 variable.
- Europe: Up to ~40,000 safe; Uzbekistan may cap ~15,000.
- Oceania, SA, NA: All numbers safe.
Quick Reference Table
| Region | DV-2025 Safe Max | DV-2026 Predicted Safe |
|---|---|---|
| Africa | 50,000 | 50,000 |
| Asia | 9,000 | 9,000 |
| Europe | 25,000 | 40,000 |
| Oceania | All | All |
| South America & Caribbean | All | All |
| North America | All | All |
Interactive Charts & Trends
Visualize our key data points and predictions.
Chart 1: Visas Issued by Region
Chart 2: Issuance vs. DV Cut-Offs
Chart 3: Historical DV Cut-Off Trends (Oct 2024 – May 2025)
Chart 4: DV-2026 Safe Number Predictions
As always, keep an eye on the Visa Bulletin updates each month. They will confirm the cut-off numbers for your region as the year goes on. We’ll update our insights as more information on DV-2026 emerges. In the meantime, congratulations on being selected and good luck on your DV journey! Keep your documents ready, respond to any inquiries quickly, and may your number be called soon.
Disclaimer:
The information presented on this page is for informational purposes only and is not an official statement or representation by any government agency. The data displayed is derived from internal analysis and is not verified by any official or governmental source. We make no guarantees as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided. Users should independently verify any details before making decisions based on this data. By using this information, you agree that we are not liable for any errors or omissions and that it should not be relied upon as legal or official guidance.
Do I stand any chance with case number 2025AS154XX? I am currently in the U.S. and ready for AOS
Hi there, I saw your comment, “I wish I had better news, but based on all the data and recent years, it’s just not likely.” what is it mean? when? how?
Appreciated!!!
why visa bulletin issue very slow for Asia? as compare to another year 2022 May 30000 case , year 2023 Sep 21000 case, year 2024 Sep 27500 case. my case Asia dv2026 21K.
Kesey,
Main reason the DV-2025 Visa Bulletin has been more conservative for Asia compared to previous years comes down to higher case-number density and embassy capacity.
In DV-2025, each 1,000-case block in Asia includes more real, active selectees than in past years. That means KCC can move fewer numbers each month while still filling all available interview slots. On top of that, some key embassies (like in Nepal, Iran, and parts of South Asia) have limited capacity or are facing backlogs, which slows down overall regional movement.
It’s possible that DV-2026 could follow a similar pattern, especially if the selectee pool is dense again. If Asia ends up with tighter movement like DV-2025, it may be a challenging number, but we’ll know more soon.
hello dv2025 eu29k is safe number?
Mehmet,
It’s not considered a safe number this year. I wish I had better news, but I want to be upfront so you can plan accordingly.
Hello there. Is there any hope for DV2026SA45XX. God bless you
Jim,
I have to be honest, it’s going to be very tough. Historically, the cut-off for the SA region rarely goes above 2,800 to 3,000, even in years with fewer selectees or some banned countries. Unless there’s a dramatic and unprecedented change in how visas are distributed, a number in the 4,500s is unfortunately not likely to become current. I wish the outlook was better, but I want to be upfront about the odds.
Hi, I am from Asia as DV2026 case 21K, do i get any chance for interview? as many COUNTRY was ban to get the interview. do I have a hope? thanks
Kesey,
With a DV-2026 Asia case number of 21,000, I have to be honest, your chances for an interview are very low, even with some countries banned this year. The cut-offs for Asia have never come close to reaching that high, and while the bans might push the numbers a little further, it won’t be enough to get near 21,000. I wish I had better news, but based on all the data and recent years, it’s just not likely.
dv26 case number 19k any chance after ban countries
Hello,
Please share your region (e.g. Asia, Europe, Africa, SA, OC), or confirm your country.
hi Admin,
i am a dv. 2026 winner with a case number of SA 26XX (caribbean region) based on historical trends, is this likely a “safe” number especially with the exception of cuba in this year’s draw and, when do you estimate my interview may come up? thank you for any feedback in advance
Simone,
Yes, SA–26XX is very likely a safe number, and you should expect your interview notice between June – August 2026.
Will there be any chance case number 2025OC3xxx will get an interview date ?
Mia,
Thanks for your question! Case number 2025OC3XXX is considered quite high for the Oceania region. Historically, Oceania moves slowly near the end of the fiscal year, often in steps of about 100 to 150 numbers per month.
With only a couple of months left and a backlog of over 100 ready cases still awaiting interviews, the chances of a significant jump are limited. For that reason, while it’s not impossible, the likelihood of OC3XXX receiving an interview this year is very low under current conditions.
It’s always good to stay prepared just in case there’s a surprise movement, but realistically, expectations should be set accordingly.
Hello admin,So what is your pessimistic (or probably realistic) idea of the final cut off for Asia ? i know it’s hard to say at the moment but…
@myint thein789,
Thanks for your question! If you are asking about DV-2025: Based on how Asia has been progressing in DV-2025, a strong final push could bring the cutoff close to 12,000–13,000 by September. That’s a realistic range given the current pace and density. Of course, things can shift depending on embassy capacity and response rates, but unless there’s a major slowdown or unexpected backlog, that’s where most projections are landing right now.
Yep i mean dv25,So are you saying that visas can be issued up to around 13,000? Does that mean the bulletin won’t go any higher than that — for example, it won’t reach somewhere like 20,000
@myint thein789,
Right, for DV-2025 Asia, when I say the cutoff could reach around 12,000–13,000, I mean that’s the realistic upper limit for actual visa issuance, based on embassy capacity, remaining time, and current pace.
It’s possible that the Visa Bulletin could go “current” for Asia or even show a higher number, such as 15,000 or 20,000 in September 2025. But if that happens, it doesn’t guarantee interviews. Why? Because by that point, embassies will be out of time to schedule and complete new interviews before the September 30 deadline, especially with the backlog cases already waiting.
So yes, the bulletin might technically rise beyond 13,000, but for most selectees above that range, there likely won’t be any 2NLs (interview letters) sent. It’s not about the cutoff alone, it’s about whether there’s time and capacity left to act on it.
That’s why the 12,000–13,000 estimate refers to the practical ceiling for who will actually get scheduled, even if the bulletin moves higher on paper.
I was wondering the exact same thing about the DV-2025 Asia cutoff. thanks for bringing it up and for the clear breakdown!