DV-2025 August Cut-Offs: July 2025 Visa Bulletin Breakdown
The U.S. Department of State has released the July 2025 Visa Bulletin, establishing Diversity Visa (DV-2025) rank cut-offs for August 2025 interviews. Below we unpack the new numbers, highlight key processing trends, and, using both, offer informed predictions for the final bulletin of the fiscal year (September 2025).
August 2025 DV Interview Cut-Offs by Region (Official)
DV selectees with case numbers below the figures shown are now current for an August interview; those at or above must wait for September.
- Africa (AF): 50,000 (Exceptions: Algeria 49,950; Egypt 43,250; Morocco 40,500)
- Asia (AS): 11,000 (Exceptions: Iran 10,650; Nepal 10,650)
- Europe (EU): 22,000 (Exceptions: Russia 21,950; Uzbekistan 13,000)
- North America (Bahamas): Current
- Oceania (OC): 1,700
- South America & Caribbean (SA): 2,600
Example: An EU selectee with case 19,750 is current; 22,500 is not.
Recent Trends: Cut-Off Movement (May → August 2025)
Movement accelerated in most regions, Africa added 5k, Asia leapt 2k. Here’s the four-month progression:
- Africa: 35,000 → 42,500 → 45,000 → 50,000
- Asia: 6,500 → 8,250 → 9,000 → 11,000
- Europe: 16,000 → 17,500 → 19,000 → 22,000
- Oceania: 1,550 → 1,550 → 1,650 → 1,700
- SA & Caribbean: 2,250 → 2,300 → 2,450 → 2,600
Chart 1: Cut-Off Progression (May–Aug 2025)
The line chart below visualises the month-to-month advance of rank cut-offs.
Why June Predictions Didn’t Fully Match Today’s Bulletin
Our June post projected Europe to reach ~25k by August, but State set the line at 22k. Three factors explain the gap:
- Higher-than-expected June issuance: EU posts cleared a larger share of ready cases than anticipated, leaving fewer visas for August scheduling.
- Derivative surge: Average family size for EU interviews in May/June rose from 1.87 to 2.04, consuming quota faster than raw case counts indicated.
- Embassy capacity: Warsaw and Frankfurt hit scheduling ceilings, prompting KCC to hold numbers back to avoid over-allocation.
Elsewhere the forecasts held: Africa landed at the low end of our 50-55k window, Asia hit the 11k target, and SA/OC moved almost point-for-point.
Regional Case Summary
| Region | Total Cases | Issued | Highest Issued Case | Total Refused | Total AP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AF | 86,709 | 12,987 | 41,644 | 1,021 | 172 |
| AS | 29,918 | 4,337 | 8,238 | 278 | 14 |
| EU | 41,009 | 11,375 | 17,489 | 319 | 7 |
| OC | 3,805 | 625 | 1,544 | 100 | 2 |
| SA | 4,175 | 1,213 | 2,298 | 133 | 3 |
*“Highest Issued Case” = largest case number with at least one visa issued.
Overall DV-2025 Case Status Snapshot
Where the 130k-plus DV-2025 cases now stand:
- At NVC: 46,166 cases
- Issued: 30,540 cases
- Ready: 15,974 cases
- Refused: 1,851 cases
- Refused 221(g): 2,948 cases
- Administrative Processing: 198 cases
- In Transit: 12 cases
- Transferred: 55 cases
Observations & Advice for Selectees
- Africa: With a 5k jump, virtually all numbers below 50k will interview; high-50k cases should watch the September bulletin closely.
- Asia: Iran/Nepal caps still bind. If you’re under 11k, ensure your DS-260 is complete and documents are scanned.
- Europe: The cautious 22k suggests a final jump, likely to 24–26k, in September. High-20k cases need a backup plan.
- Oceania: Slow but steady; expect “current” in September if issuance pace holds.
- SA & Caribbean: Now only 2,600, virtually current. Expect full current next month.
- North America (Bahamas): Remains current all year.
September 2025 Cut-Off Predictions
Our data-driven outlook for the final bulletin:
- Africa: Current (or list 55,000 if State keeps numbering)
- Asia: 12,500 (Iran/Nepal ≈ 12,250)
- Europe: 26,000 (Uzbekistan ≈ 15,000; Russia ≈ 25,500)
- Oceania: Current
- SA & Caribbean: Current
- North America: Current
Interactive Charts
Chart 2: Visas Issued by Region
Chart 3: Issuance vs. DV Cut-Offs
Chart 4: Predicted September Cut-Offs
Final Thoughts
DV-2025 is in the home stretch. Africa and Asia look poised to clear, Europe faces one last sprint, and the smaller regions should all be current by September 30. If your case is below the predicted September line, keep your email and spam folders checked daily—2NLs can arrive with little notice. High-number cases, particularly in Europe, should prepare contingency plans but stay hopeful: late-cycle jumps are common once State finalises no-shows and visa reallocations.
Disclaimer:
The information presented on this page is for informational purposes only and is not an official statement or representation by any government agency. The data displayed is derived from internal analysis and is not verified by any official or governmental source. We make no guarantees as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided. Users should independently verify any details before making decisions based on this data. By using this information, you agree that we are not liable for any errors or omissions and that it should not be relied upon as legal or official guidance.