DV-2025: Safe Case Numbers by Region (and Early DV-2026 Predictions)
If you’ve been selected in the Diversity Visa (DV) Lottery, one big question is looming: Is my case number “safe”? Will your regional rank number be low enough to get an interview before the program year ends? In this post, we’ll break down safe case number ranges for DV-2025 by region – Africa, Asia, Europe, Oceania, South America (including the Caribbean), and North America – and share early predictions for DV-2026. We’re diving straight into the numbers that matter to you.
By analyzing official U.S. State Department data, we estimate which case numbers are essentially guaranteed an interview (“safe”) and which are borderline. We’ll also consider trends like selectee density, historical issuance patterns, and this year’s Visa Bulletin progression.
Why “Safe Numbers” Matter in DV Lottery
Every DV selectee is assigned a case number within a region. Lower numbers are called for interview first, but not all will get a chance by September 30. The State Department selects more entrants than available visas (up to 55,000 worldwide, ~51,350 for DV-2025). About 131,000 individuals (selectees + family) were notified for DV-2025 – far more than the visas available – to account for no-shows and ineligibles. A “safe” number is one that, given historical and current pacing, is virtually certain to be reached.
DV-2025: Safe Case Number Ranges by Region
These ranges are very likely to be scheduled by September 2025:
Africa (AF)
Case numbers go up to ~86,000, but as of June the cutoff is 42,500 (Algeria 42,250; Egypt 36,250; Morocco 30,000). Africa often goes current by year-end.
Safe Range: Up to 50,000 is virtually guaranteed; many into 70,000–80,000 will likely be reached (most countries).
Asia (AS)
Numbers reach ~29,000. June cutoff is 8,250 (Nepal/Iran 8,000). Asia cutoffs have risen steadily.
Safe Range: Under 9,000 for all; most other countries safe up to 15,000+.
Europe (EU)
Numbers up to ~41,000. June cutoff is 17,500 (Russia 17,450; Uzbekistan 10,250). EU often accelerates late.
Safe Range: Up to 25,000 very safe; many into the 30,000s. Uzbekistan >15,000 more at risk.
Oceania (OC)
Numbers up to ~3,800. June cutoff is 1,550, but OC almost always goes current.
Safe Range: All case numbers safe.
South America & Caribbean (SA)
Numbers up to ~4,175. June cutoff is 2,300, but SA typically goes current.
Safe Range: All case numbers safe.
North America (NA)
Only Bahamas, numbers up to 23, current at 20.
Safe Range: All case numbers safe.
Looking Ahead: Early DV-2026 Safe Number Predictions
Based on DV-2024/2025 trends, here’s what “safe” may look like in DV-2026:
- Africa: Up to ~50,000 safe; many into 70,000–80,000 likely (with country exceptions).
- Asia: Nepal/Iran ~9,000; others ~15,000; >20,000 variable.
- Europe: Up to ~40,000 safe; Uzbekistan may cap ~15,000.
- Oceania, SA, NA: All numbers safe.
Quick Reference Table
| Region | DV-2025 Safe Max | DV-2026 Predicted Safe |
|---|---|---|
| Africa | 50,000 | 50,000 |
| Asia | 9,000 | 9,000 |
| Europe | 25,000 | 40,000 |
| Oceania | All | All |
| South America & Caribbean | All | All |
| North America | All | All |
Interactive Charts & Trends
Visualize our key data points and predictions.
Chart 1: Visas Issued by Region
Chart 2: Issuance vs. DV Cut-Offs
Chart 3: Historical DV Cut-Off Trends (Oct 2024 – May 2025)
Chart 4: DV-2026 Safe Number Predictions
As always, keep an eye on the Visa Bulletin updates each month. They will confirm the cut-off numbers for your region as the year goes on. We’ll update our insights as more information on DV-2026 emerges. In the meantime, congratulations on being selected and good luck on your DV journey! Keep your documents ready, respond to any inquiries quickly, and may your number be called soon.
Disclaimer:
The information presented on this page is for informational purposes only and is not an official statement or representation by any government agency. The data displayed is derived from internal analysis and is not verified by any official or governmental source. We make no guarantees as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided. Users should independently verify any details before making decisions based on this data. By using this information, you agree that we are not liable for any errors or omissions and that it should not be relied upon as legal or official guidance.
Je appelle Ramadan je trouve dv-lottery 2026 case number Af 88k Je vais trouver l’entrée
my case number is 2026AF00041600,when would i get my 2nls please?
Mon numéro de dossier est 2026/AF/88k quand est-ce que je recevrai mon 2Nsl
Hello,
My number is EU25xxx. Should i hope for an interview?
Hi admin.Me casenumber AS19k.Will we be interviewed?
Hi,
I have 2026EU23XXX. Hopeful due to the 7.5k start for October vs. mostly below 6.5k in past years.
However, I’m interested to know what logic you used to estimate around 40k cutoff this year. Could you please explain the calculation methodology?
Thanks!!!
The early estimate around EU40k came from the higher-than-usual October cutoff of 7,750, which suggested stronger initial movement compared to previous years. That, combined with signs of more holes in the number range and lower DS-260 submission rates, led some to believe fewer real cases would be competing for visas. If embassies process efficiently and refusal or no-show rates stay high, the region could go much further than DV-2025. But to be clear, it wasn’t based on a strict formula, more of an informed projection. Now that we’ve seen DV-2025 end at EU23k, anything above 30k still carries real risk until we see how DV-2026 plays out.
Hi there, got case number of 2026OC000029XX, what are the chances of getting an interview, and when to expect?
If I am in the US when I get the DV selection, do I have to do the DS260?
Amanda, If you’re in the U.S. when selected and plan to adjust status through USCIS, you don’t need to file the DS-260. Instead, you’ll go through Form I-485 (Adjustment of Status). But if you plan to process through a U.S. embassy abroad, then yes, you’d file the DS-260. It depends on your situation and what path you choose.
Hi! My number is 2026SA31**. Is this a safe number? I am very scared. I rarely see them get past 3000, so I don’t know if I should get my hopes up.
Amanda, SA31XX is considered a safe number in most years. DV-2025 reached SA4,800, and DV-2026 starts strong with a cut-off of 1,850 in October. So unless something very unusual happens, your number is well within reach. You can stay hopeful.
Hey Hello can you tell me is there any chance for 2025AS14530 May god Bless you
No, AS14,530 is not within the cut-off, and there won’t be another chance under DV-2025. You’d need to apply again in the next lottery.
Hello my namba is 25 000 Europe case is 17.000 I have any chance of interviews?
Hello, case number 2026AF597.. any chance I will have my 2NL
Hello, October starts Africa at 17,500; if the monthly jumps are strong you could get there, but treat it as borderline and watch each bulletin.