Impact of the U.S. Travel Ban on the Diversity Visa Lottery

A New U.S. Travel Ban is Looming
A new U.S. travel ban is looming, as highlighted by recent reports. This policy could have far-reaching effects on the Diversity Visa (DV) Lottery – a program that annually offers 55,000 green cards to immigrants from countries with low U.S. immigration rates. In particular, applicants and selectees for DV-2025 and DV-2026 are watching closely. How will country-based entry bans and visa suspensions impact their chance to immigrate? Below we explore the latest official policies, which countries are affected, implications for current and future DV lotteries, historical context from past bans, and guidance for those who might be affected.

Official U.S. Policies on the Travel Ban and Visa Restrictions

The U.S. travel ban refers to executive actions that restrict entry of nationals from certain countries due to security or vetting concerns.

• In 2017: Then-President Trump issued Executive Order 13769, the original “Muslim Ban,” temporarily barring entry of citizens from seven Muslim-majority countries (Iran, Iraq, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, and Yemen). This sparked chaos and legal challenges, leading to revised proclamations.
• By 2018: A third iteration of the ban was upheld by the U.S. Supreme Court, adding countries like North Korea and Venezuelan officials to the list of restricted nations.
• In early 2020: The Trump administration expanded the ban via Proclamation 9983 to include six more countries – Nigeria, Eritrea, Myanmar (Burma), Kyrgyzstan, Sudan, and Tanzania – citing inadequate identity-management and security information in those nations. Notably, some of these additions specifically targeted Diversity Visa immigrants. For example, the 2020 expansion barred DVs from Sudan and Tanzania entirely, and blocked all immigrant visas (which include DVs) for Nigeria, Eritrea, Myanmar, and Kyrgyzstan.
• On January 20, 2021: President Biden revoked the Trump-era travel bans with the “Ending Discriminatory Bans on Entry” proclamation. This rescission ended restrictions on nationals of countries such as Iran, Libya, Somalia, Syria, Yemen, Nigeria, and others. As a result, visa processing for those countries’ applicants resumed (though many Diversity Visa winners previously barred had already lost their chance due to the DV program’s time limits). Biden called the bans “a stain on our national conscience” inconsistent with America’s welcoming tradition.

Fast-forward to 2025: The travel ban is back on the policy agenda. On January 20, 2025, a new administration issued an executive order directing security agencies to identify countries with “deficient” information-sharing or vetting and recommend travel restrictions within 60 days. This led to a draft proposal of a sweeping travel ban covering up to 43 countries – far broader than the 2017 version. While final decisions are pending, officials have indicated the new ban will be “broader than its previous four versions.” In other words, the U.S. is poised to implement a multi-tiered travel ban by executive action in 2025, affecting dozens of countries at varying levels.

Countries Affected and DV Lottery Eligibility Status

According to reports, the 2025 draft travel ban sorts countries into three categories – “red,” “orange,” and “yellow” lists – each with different levels of restriction:

1. Red List (11 countries)
   Citizens would be completely banned from entering the U.S. This includes Afghanistan, Bhutan, Cuba, Iran, Libya, North Korea, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Venezuela, and Yemen. These nationals would be ineligible for any U.S. visa or entry, absent rare exceptions.
2. Orange List (10 countries)
   Citizens of Belarus, Eritrea, Haiti, Laos, Myanmar (Burma), Pakistan, Russia, Sierra Leone, South Sudan, and Turkmenistan would not be entirely barred, but their visas would be limited to certain types or granted only after enhanced vetting (e.g., mandatory in-person interviews). It’s possible only specific visa categories would be issued, or shorter visa validity periods applied.
3. Yellow List (22 countries)
   These countries (mostly in Africa, plus a few in Asia and the Caribbean) are flagged for concern but given 60 days to improve their security and information-sharing practices. The yellow-listed nations include Angola, Antigua and Barbuda, Benin, Burkina Faso, Cambodia, Cameroon, Cape Verde, Chad, Republic of Congo, DR Congo, Dominica, Equatorial Guinea, Gambia, Liberia, Malawi, Mali, Mauritania, St. Kitts and Nevis, St. Lucia, São Tomé and Príncipe, Vanuatu, and Zimbabwe. If they do not meet U.S. requirements, they risk being moved to the red or orange list.

Many of these countries traditionally qualify for the DV Lottery. The DV program is open to natives of countries with “historically low rates of immigration” to the U.S., which includes most of Africa, Asia, and parts of Europe and Latin America. Notably, no country can receive more than 7% of DV visas in a year, and high-immigration countries (like India, China, Mexico, etc.) are excluded by law.

• For DV-2025 and DV-2026, eligible countries still included places like Iran, Afghanistan, Sudan, Russia, and many African nations – essentially all the countries now on the proposed ban lists except a few.
• Pakistan and Haiti, for example, have long been ineligible for the DV Lottery due to large immigrant populations in the U.S., so a travel ban would not change their DV status.
• Cuba was eligible for DV-2025, but just became ineligible for DV-2026 after exceeding the immigration threshold. Ironically, Cuba is also on the new red list, meaning Cuban DV-2025 selectees are now blocked by the ban, and Cuban hopefuls cannot even apply in DV-2026 due to the lottery rules.

In short, the travel ban targets do not overlap much with the DV Lottery’s ineligible-country list, so individuals from red/orange list nations can still enter the DV Lottery and even be selected – but the travel ban would later prevent U.S. consulates from issuing them visas.

How the Travel Ban Impacts DV-2025 and DV-2026 Selectees

DV-2025 winners (those selected in the 2024 lottery) and DV-2026 hopefuls now face an uncertain road. If the new travel ban is enacted as outlined, nationals of any red-listed country who won the DV Lottery will be barred from receiving their immigrant visa.

For Red-List Countries (11 nations)

• These cases will likely be denied visas under the ban despite being “winners.” During the 2017-2020 ban, diversity visa selectees from Iran, Yemen, Syria, Somalia, etc., were routinely refused under the proclamation.
• Waivers are possible but historically extremely rare (under 2% approval rate).

For Orange-List Countries (10 nations)

• Applicants may not be absolutely banned, but face heightened scrutiny and possibly limited visa categories.
• DV immigrants could be paused or delayed for orange-list countries until extra vetting is completed.
• Still, there is a chance some orange-list DV selectees can get visas, unlike red-list cases which are outright barred.

For Yellow-List Countries (22 nations)

• Initially, these winners should be processed normally.
• However, there is a 60-day window for these governments to fix issues. If they fail and move to red or orange, their nationals could face new restrictions mid-process.
• Timing is crucial – if a country addresses U.S. concerns, its citizens might avoid sanctions and continue the DV process unhindered.

Impact on DV Visa Quotas and Cutoff Numbers: If many selectees cannot get visas due to the ban, it might mean less competition for others. Diversity visas “lost” to banned applicants might open opportunities for higher-case-number selectees from non-banned countries in the same region. Overall, though, the travel ban will likely block thousands of potential immigrants from red-list countries.

Historical Context: Past Travel Bans and the DV Lottery

This is not the first time a travel ban has collided with the Diversity Visa program. The 2017-2020 “Muslim Ban” era showed how DV lottery winners were impacted in practice:

• DV-2018 and DV-2019: These lotteries produced winners who sought visas during 2018 and 2019, right when Proclamation 9645 was in effect. Nationals of Iran, Syria, Yemen, Somalia, and Libya were largely barred from receiving visas, often placed in administrative limbo or denied. A lawsuit by Yemeni and Iranian DV winners challenged the ban and the waiver process but did not overturn the ban.
• Waivers: Technically allowed in the 2017-2020 ban, but fewer than 2% of applicants succeeded. Most DV selectees from banned countries simply lost their chance.
• 2020 “African Ban”: Expanded the ban to Nigeria, Eritrea, Myanmar, Kyrgyzstan, Sudan, and Tanzania. It singled out DVs in some cases (banning them specifically for Sudan and Tanzania). This severely cut DV issuance for those countries until the ban was revoked by Biden in 2021.

These episodes set a precedent: Bans directly curtail DV outcomes. Thousands of lottery selectees never got their visas. Some waited out the ban only to see their DV eligibility expire at the end of the fiscal year. The upcoming ban in 2025, affecting potentially 43 countries, could have an even wider impact.

Implications for Future DV Lotteries (DV-2027 and Beyond)

Unless there are changes, the travel ban’s influence may extend to DV-2027 (entry in late 2025) and beyond.

• Ban Does Not Exclude Countries from the DV Selection: By law, all “eligible” countries are included in the DV Lottery. Even banned countries remain technically eligible if they meet the low-immigration threshold. This means each year some winners from banned countries may be selected, only to find themselves unable to get a visa.
• Potential Demand Shifts: Over time, fewer people from banned countries might apply, but many still will in hope that the ban could be lifted before their visas are processed.
• Policy Adaptations: The State Department could choose to quietly select more winners overall to offset expected bans, but no formal announcement has been made.
• Diplomatic or Administrative Changes: Countries on the “yellow” list might fix their issues and avoid full bans. Different U.S. administrations might revoke or expand the ban depending on their policies.
• Legislative Shifts: Congress could pass legislation like the NO BAN Act, limiting the executive’s power to impose broad nationality bans. If that happens, it might restore DV opportunities for those currently barred.

Legal and Policy Changes on the Horizon for Affected DV Applicants

Judicial Challenges

Legal suits are likely whenever broad bans are imposed. However, after the Supreme Court upheld Trump’s 2018 ban, the bar to overturn it is high unless there’s evidence of unconstitutional discrimination.

Possible Legislation (e.g., the NO BAN Act)

If enacted, the NO BAN Act would restrict discriminatory bans based on nationality or religion and require greater justification. This would drastically limit or end the current broad ban, but it faces an uncertain path in Congress.

Policy Tweaks and Waivers

The administration could adjust how it enforces the ban, potentially improving waiver processes. Historically, waivers under the travel ban have been extremely difficult, but that could change with new guidelines.

Foreign Policy and Diplomatic Agreements

Countries on the ban lists can negotiate or upgrade their security/vetting processes to be removed from red/orange status, opening the door for DV lottery participants again. This happened with Chad during the previous ban.

Guidance and Alternative Strategies for Impacted DV Applicants

1. Continue Entering the Lottery (But Manage Expectations)
   • You can still apply each year if your country remains legally eligible. Policies can change, so a future administration or a lawsuit might remove the ban mid-process.
   • Be aware that under a ban, a DV “win” might not lead to a visa unless it’s lifted or you qualify for a rare waiver.
2. Explore Dual Citizenship or Alternate Passports
   • The ban is based on the passport you present. If you have or can obtain citizenship from a non-banned country, that may circumvent the ban.
3. Adjustment of Status (AOS) in the U.S.
   • If you’re already in the U.S. on a valid status (student, work visa, etc.) and you win the DV, you might avoid the ban by adjusting status from within the U.S. Typically, travel bans focus on issuing visas abroad, not on AOS.
4. Pursue Waivers (If Applicable)
   • Historically rare, but theoretically possible. Prepare a strong waiver application demonstrating hardship, national interest, and lack of security threat.
5. Leverage Family Connections
   • If you have a spouse from a non-banned country, consider each spouse filing their own DV entry, so that if the non-banned spouse wins, you can immigrate as a derivative.
   • If you’re the primary DV winner from a banned country, you’re still subject to the ban (your spouse’s status can’t override that).
6. Monitor Your Country’s Status
   • If you’re on the yellow list, watch for announcements about improvements or downgrades to red/orange. Timing can affect your DV processing.
7. Consider Other Immigration Paths
   • If DV isn’t viable under the ban, look into nonimmigrant work or study visas (which might be less restricted) or other countries’ immigration programs.
   • If conditions in your home country are dire, explore refugee or asylum processes.
8. Stay Informed and Seek Expert Advice
   • Check official State Department announcements, follow reputable immigration news, and consult a qualified attorney if directly affected.
9. Plan for the Long Game
   • If the ban endures and you lose your DV opportunity this year, you can keep reapplying or pursue other solutions. Circumstances can change drastically with new administrations or legislation.

Conclusion

The U.S. travel ban policy described in recent reports is set to cast a long shadow over the Diversity Visa Lottery in 2025 and 2026. Official U.S. policy is once again restricting immigration based on nationality, with dozens of countries affected. For DV lottery participants from those countries, this means a heightened risk that even a winning ticket might not pay out.

History shows that travel bans can severely restrict DV issuance, as seen from 2017 to 2020. Going forward, unless legal or legislative interventions arise, DV-2027 and beyond could see more of the same – a system where winners from red- and orange-listed countries struggle to convert their lottery selection into a U.S. immigrant visa.

Yet, the situation is not hopeless. Policy shifts, legislative changes, or successful diplomacy could reopen doors. In the meantime, impacted applicants must stay proactive, monitor official updates, and be prepared with alternative strategies and waiver applications. While the DV Lottery has always been a gamble, the new travel ban makes it an even steeper challenge for many. Understanding these complexities – and planning accordingly – is the best way to keep the American dream within reach.

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