Introduction
The April 2025 Visa Bulletin has been released, bringing important updates for Diversity Visa (DV) lottery selectees. The bulletin, published on the official government website, outlines the DV‑2025 rank cut‑off numbers for visa interviews in May 2025.
In this blog, we break down these new cut‑offs region by region, compare them with trends from our March 6 update, and use the latest case processing data to predict what June 2025 might hold for each region. We also dive into recent visa processing stats – including how many visas have been issued, the refusal rates, and how high the case numbers have reached so far – to provide full context for the cut‑off movements.
Let’s begin with a quick overview of the May 2025 cut‑off numbers, and then explore each region in detail with our predictions for June 2025.
May 2025 DV Lottery Cut-Offs
The official government website reports the following DV‑2025 rank numbers for May 2025 interviews:
- Africa (AF): 35,000 (with country exceptions: Algeria 34,500; Egypt 32,500; Morocco 30,000)
- Asia (AS): 6,500 (with country exceptions: Iran 6,450; Nepal 6,450)
- Europe (EU): 16,000 (with country exceptions: Russia 15,950; Uzbekistan 9,000)
- North America (Bahamas): 20
- Oceania (OC): 1,550
- South America & Caribbean (SA): 2,250
These numbers represent the DV regional lottery rank cut‑offs for May 2025. If your DV‑2025 case number is below your region’s (or country’s) cut‑off, you are eligible to be scheduled for an interview in May. (A “C” would indicate current status, but here specific cut‑offs show that not all regions are current.)
Comparison to April 2025 Interviews:
– Africa’s cut‑off increased from 30,000 to 35,000 (a 5,000‑case jump).
– Asia’s moved from 6,000 to 6,500.
– Europe’s overall remained at 16,000 (with Uzbekistan rising from 7,750 to 9,000, and Russia remaining at 15,950).
– Oceania went from 1,500 to 1,550.
– South America increased from 2,200 to 2,250.
– North America (Bahamas) remained at 20.
Regional Analysis & June 2025 Predictions
Below is a detailed regional breakdown, including current processing status and our predictions for June 2025.
Africa (AF) Region – Big Leap and Strong Momentum
May Cut-Off: 35,000 (Algeria 34,500; Egypt 32,500; Morocco 30,000)
April Cut-Off (reference): 30,000 (Algeria 29,950; Egypt 27,950; Morocco 27,950)
- Approximately 6,938 visas issued from 8,278 interviewed cases (≈84% approval rate).
- Over 8,400 cases received interview notices (2NLs); more than 25,000 cases remain at the NVC.
- The highest issued case number is around 24,945.
June 2025 Prediction: We anticipate another 5,000‑case jump, with the cut‑off reaching around 40,000. High‑demand countries such as Egypt and Algeria may remain a few thousand points lower.
Asia (AS) Region – Slow and Steady Progress, Managing Country Caps
May Cut-Off: 6,500 (with Iran and Nepal at 6,450)
April Cut-Off (reference): 6,000 (with Iran and Nepal at 5,950)
- Approximately 2,767 visas issued in Asia.
- Over 1,000 cases are in administrative processing (notably among Iranian selectees).
- The highest issued case number is around 5,982.
June 2025 Prediction: We expect an increase of 500–1,000 points, predicting a June cut‑off around 7,000 (or possibly up to 7,500 if backlogs clear faster). Nepal and Iran will likely remain just below the overall figure.
Europe (EU) Region – Holding Steady, Exception Countries in Focus
May Cut-Off: 16,000 overall (with Russia 15,950; Uzbekistan 9,000)
April Cut-Off (reference): 16,000 overall (with Russia 15,950; Uzbekistan 7,750)
- About 7,555 visas issued with only 191 refusals (≈96% approval rate).
- The highest issued case number is around 12,946.
- Backlog: Approximately 5,300 cases received 2NLs; around 14,900 cases are “Ready” and a similar number remain at the NVC.
June 2025 Prediction: We predict Europe’s overall cut‑off will rise to around 18,000. Uzbekistan’s cut‑off may increase to between 11,000 and 12,000, while Russia should remain near 15,950.
Oceania (OC) Region – Nearing the Limit, Small Bumps Ahead
May Cut-Off: 1,550
April Cut-Off (reference): 1,500
- Approximately 391 visas issued; the highest issued case number is around 1,091.
- About 448 cases received 2NLs; 1,583 cases remain at the NVC.
- The refusal rate is slightly higher (≈80 refusals) due to strict qualification checks.
June 2025 Prediction: Expect an additional increase of 100–150 points, with the June cut‑off predicted to be between 1,650 and 1,700.
South America and the Caribbean (SA) Region – Consistent Growth, Likely to Go Current
May Cut-Off: 2,250
April Cut-Off (reference): 2,200
- Approximately 826 visas issued; 79 refusals; the highest issued case number is around 1,755.
- About 726 cases received 2NLs; 1,600 cases remain at the NVC.
- This suggests that some case numbers up to 2,250 might be unused or “holes.”
June 2025 Prediction: We predict a slight increase to around 2,400 (or possibly 2,500). In previous cycles, this region sometimes goes “current” later in the year.
North America (Bahamas) – Always Current by Default
May Cut-Off: 20
April Cut-Off: 20
For DV purposes, North America covers only the Bahamas (since Canada and most other North American countries are ineligible). With very few selectees (often only 1–5 cases), a cut‑off of 20 means all Bahamian selectees are current.
June 2025 Prediction: The cut‑off will remain at 20.
Key Insights from Recent DV Processing Data
The following insights help explain the cut‑off movements:
- Global Issuance and Quota Usage: As of early March 2025, around 18,477 visas have been issued worldwide – roughly one‑third of the ~55,000 diversity visas available (with an effective allocation of about 52,000 after adjustments). This means most visas remain to be issued.
- High Approval Rates: Most regions report very high approval rates (e.g., Europe’s DV cases ~96%, Africa ~84%).
- Administrative Processing (221g): Over 2,200 cases globally are under 221g processing, particularly affecting Asia (especially among Iranian selectees) and some African cases. These pending cases can slow cut‑off advancements.
-
Highest Case Numbers Reached:
- Africa: ~24,900 issued (cut‑offs now at 35,000)
- Asia: ~5,900 issued (cut‑off at 6,500)
- Europe: ~12,900 issued (cut‑off at 16,000 overall; Uzbekistan at 9,000)
- Oceania: ~1,091 issued (cut‑off at 1,550)
- South America: ~1,755 issued (cut‑off at 2,250)
- North America: ~4 issued (Bahamian cases; remain current)
- Lowest Case Numbers Remaining: Nearly all regions have processed their lowest case numbers first. A very low case number still at the NVC might indicate a delay in DS‑260 submission or other factors.
- Backlogs and Future Movement: Over 53,000 cases remain at the NVC across all regions, ensuring that cut‑offs will continue to rise until the full visa allocation is used.
These insights underscore that the DV‑2025 process is well underway and accelerating. For example, Africa issued nearly 7,000 visas by March, and Uzbekistan’s case numbers trail behind the rest of Europe.
Regional Case Summary
Detailed metrics by region:
| Region | Total Cases | Total Issued | Highest Issued Case | 2NL Notifications | Total Refused | Total AP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AF | 86,709 | 6,938 | 24,945 | 8,476 | 458 | 144 |
| AS | 29,918 | 2,767 | 5,982 | 2,741 | 197 | 38 |
| EU | 41,009 | 7,555 | 12,946 | 5,299 | 191 | 42 |
| OC | 3,805 | 391 | 1,091 | 448 | 80 | 2 |
| SA | 4,175 | 826 | 1,755 | 726 | 79 | 6 |
*Note: “Highest Issued Case” represents the maximum case number among those with issued visas.
Data Source: Latest processing data and official government website.
Case Status Breakdown
A snapshot of DV‑2025 processing:
- At NVC: 53,039 cases
- Issued: 18,477 cases
- Ready: 14,909 cases
- Refusals: 1,005 cases plus 2,258 cases under 221g
- In Transit: 168 cases
- Administrative Processing (AP): 232 cases
- Transferred: 28 cases
These aggregates help set expectations for upcoming notifications and overall processing timelines.
Observations & Tips
- Africa: A 5,000‑point jump from 30,000 to 35,000 indicates strong momentum; expect a June cut‑off around 40,000.
- Asia: A 500‑point increase suggests steady progress, with a predicted June cut‑off near 7,000.
- Europe: While the overall cut‑off stayed at 16,000, Uzbekistan’s jump to 9,000 hints at an eventual rise to around 18,000 overall (with Uzbekistan possibly reaching 11,000–12,000).
- Oceania: Minor increases signal controlled progress – a June cut‑off between 1,650 and 1,700 is anticipated.
- South America: With a modest increase from 2,200 to 2,250, expect a June cut‑off around 2,400.
- North America (Bahamas): Remains current at 20.
Tips: If your case number is below your region’s current cut‑off, keep an eye out for your 2NL. Ensure your DS‑260 and all supporting documents are complete and up‑to‑date.
Interactive Charts & Trends
The charts below visualize key data and trends from this update.
Chart 1: Visas Issued by Region (March 2025)
This chart displays the number of visas issued per region in March 2025.
Chart 2: March Issuance vs. April Cut-Offs
Compare the March issuance numbers with the official April cut‑offs.
Chart 3: Historical DV Cut-Off Trends (Oct 2024 – May 2025)
This line chart shows how DV cut‑off levels have evolved from October 2024 through May 2025.
Chart 4: Predicted DV Cut-Offs for June 2025 (Unofficial)
Based on our analysis and current trends, these unofficial projections show the predicted cut‑offs for June 2025.
Looking Ahead
With 165,616 total cases processed, our data indicates that while some regions (such as Africa) are accelerating rapidly, others (like Asia and Europe) are progressing steadily. Our predictions for the June 2025 Visa Bulletin are:
- Africa: Around 40,000
- Asia: Approximately 7,000
- Europe: Roughly 18,000 (with Uzbekistan around 11,000–12,000)
- Oceania: Between 1,650 and 1,700
- South America: About 2,400–2,500
- North America (Bahamas): Remains at 20
These estimates will be officially confirmed in the May 2025 Visa Bulletin (typically released mid‑May). If your case number is nearing these thresholds, now is the time to ensure your documents are ready.
Final Insights & Next Steps
Our review of the April 2025 Visa Bulletin and processing trends shows strong momentum in the DV‑2025 process. With high approval rates and a sizable backlog, cut‑offs will continue to advance until all available visas are issued.
If your case number is below your region’s current cut‑off, expect your 2NL (Second Notification Letter) soon. Double‑check that your DS‑260 is submitted and that all supporting documents – including your medical exam results – are ready.
Thank you for following our DV Lottery update. Stay informed by checking the monthly Visa Bulletin and trusted DV lottery news sources. Good luck to all DV‑2025 selectees – the finish line, a coveted immigrant visa, is in sight for thousands of lucky winners!
Keep the faith and keep moving forward!
Disclaimer:
The information presented on this page is for informational purposes only and is not an official statement or representation by any government agency. The data displayed is derived from internal analysis and is not verified by any official or governmental source. We make no guarantees as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided. Users should independently verify any details before making decisions based on this data. By using this information, you agree that we are not liable for any errors or omissions and that it should not be relied upon as legal or official guidance.
What’s going up with Europe?
In May 2025, the cutoff number for Europe stayed at 16,000 because most cases are being processed without major delays. However, some countries have higher demand than others. For example, Uzbekistan has so many applicants that it needed a separate limit, which was increased from 7,750 to 9,000. Russia’s limit, on the other hand, stayed almost the same. This means that most Europe cases are moving along smoothly, so there’s no need to raise the overall cutoff number above 16,000. In short, the system is working to keep things balanced, only countries with a lot of applicants get special adjustments, while the overall number stays steady unless delays start to build up across Europe.