Welcome to this week’s DV Lottery 2025 update. After conducting new research on the latest processing trends and issuance patterns, we have refined our previous analysis of the April 2025 Visa Bulletin. This update compares our earlier predictions with fresh insights and provides revised predictions for the upcoming June 2025 cut-offs. For full background, please refer to our previous post: DV Lottery 2025 Update: April Visa Bulletin Analysis & June Cut-Off Predictions.
Recap: April 2025 Visa Bulletin Analysis
The April 2025 Visa Bulletin—released in March—set the DV rank cut-off numbers for May 2025 interviews, which determine the selectees scheduled for their green card appointments. In this process, the “cut-off” is defined as the highest case number eligible for processing in a given month. If a region is marked “Current,” then all cases in that region are scheduled; otherwise, a specific numerical limit applies.
The official cut-offs for May 2025 were:
- Africa (AF): Up to 35,000 (with country exceptions: Algeria 34,500; Egypt 32,500; Morocco 30,000)
- Asia (AS): Up to 6,500 (with Iran and Nepal capped at 6,450)
- Europe (EU): Up to 16,000 overall, with Russia at 15,950 and Uzbekistan at 9,000
- North America (Bahamas) (NA): 20
- Oceania (OC): 1,550
- South America & Caribbean (SA): 2,250
Compared with the previous bulletin (where the cut-offs were 30,000 for Africa, 6,000 for Asia, and 16,000 for Europe), Africa increased by 5,000, Asia by 500, while Oceania and South America saw minor increments and Europe’s overall number held steady (with only Uzbekistan rising from 7,750 to 9,000). At that point, about 20,350 visas had been issued (roughly 40% of the 52,000 available), leaving ample capacity before the fiscal year ends on September 30.
Our original analysis examined key factors such as:
- Backlogs vs. Cut-Offs: Africa’s rising cut-off indicates a high volume of active cases, while Europe’s plateau shows a cautious processing pace.
- Country-Specific Caps: Large selectee populations in countries like Egypt, Nepal, and Uzbekistan are managed with lower individual cut-offs to remain within the 7% allocation.
- Visa Issuance Trends: With approximately 20,350 visas already issued, more processing is expected as the year progresses.
Comparison with Our Previous Analysis
In our previous update we predicted the following for the June 2025 bulletin:
- Africa: A jump to approximately 40,000.
- Asia: A modest rise to around 7,000.
- Europe: An increase to roughly 18,000 overall (with Uzbekistan near 11,000 and Russia near 16,000).
- Oceania: A slight increase to about 1,700.
- South America & Caribbean: An increase to approximately 2,400.
- North America: Expected to be declared “Current.”
However, our new research indicates that some regions are now showing a faster pace than previously predicted.
Updated Regional Analysis & Revised Predictions for June 2025
After thoroughly reviewing the latest processing data and trends, here is our updated breakdown by region:
Africa (AF Region)
May 2025 Cut-Off: 35,000 (Algeria 34,500; Egypt 32,500; Morocco 30,000)
New Analysis: Recent trends indicate that African processing has accelerated slightly more than we expected. Several embassies in Africa are reporting higher numbers of “Ready” cases and visa issuances. This accelerated pace suggests that the cut-off could increase by an additional 2,000 points beyond our previous prediction.
Revised Prediction: We now forecast the African cut-off to reach approximately 42,000 in the upcoming bulletin. Country-specific differences remain; for example, Egypt might still be held near its cap, while Algeria and Morocco could exceed our previous predictions.
Asia (AS Region)
May 2025 Cut-Off: 6,500 (with Iran and Nepal at 6,450)
New Analysis: In Asia, processing continues to be steady, but we have observed a slight increase in DS‑260 submissions from high-demand countries. This additional momentum suggests that the cut-off may advance a bit faster than before.
Revised Prediction: We now predict that Asia’s cut-off will increase to about 7,500 for June 2025, ensuring that countries like Nepal and Iran remain just below the overall regional number.
Europe (EU Region)
May 2025 Cut-Off: 16,000 (with Russia at 15,950; Uzbekistan at 9,000)
New Analysis: Although Europe’s overall number held at 16,000, updated data reveals a buildup—especially among Uzbekistan’s cases. Increased activity and higher issuance in some European consulates suggest that the processing rate may now accelerate.
Revised Prediction: We now forecast an increase to roughly 19,000 overall for Europe. Specifically, Uzbekistan’s sub-cut-off is expected to rise to around 12,000 while Russia remains near 16,000.
Oceania (OC Region)
May 2025 Cut-Off: 1,550
New Analysis: Oceania continues to show a gradual upward trend. The processing activity here remains consistent with historical patterns.
Revised Prediction: We expect a modest increase to approximately 1,700, similar to our previous prediction.
South America & Caribbean (SA Region)
May 2025 Cut-Off: 2,250
New Analysis: South America’s processing remains steady. Recent trends indicate a slight uptick in the number of cases being processed.
Revised Prediction: We now predict that the cut-off will rise to approximately 2,500 in the next bulletin.
North America (NA Region)
May 2025 Cut-Off: 20
New Analysis: With DV Lottery in North America covering only the Bahamas, and very few cases overall, there is no significant change expected.
Revised Prediction: This category remains Current.
Summary Comparison
The table below compares the official May 2025 cut-offs, our earlier predictions, and our revised predictions based on our new research:
| Region | May 2025 Cut-Off | Earlier Prediction | Revised Prediction (June 2025) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Africa (AF) | 35,000 (Algeria 34,500; Egypt 32,500; Morocco 30,000) | ~40,000 | ~42,000 |
| Asia (AS) | 6,500 (Iran & Nepal 6,450) | ~7,000 | ~7,500 |
| Europe (EU) | 16,000 (Russia 15,950; Uzbekistan 9,000) | ~18,000 (Uzbekistan ~11,000) | ~19,000 (Uzbekistan ~12,000; Russia ~16,000) |
| Oceania (OC) | 1,550 | ~1,700 | ~1,700 |
| South America & Caribbean (SA) | 2,250 | ~2,400–2,500 | ~2,500 |
| North America (Bahamas) | 20 | Current | Current |
*Note: All data and trends referenced here are based on official government information and historical processing patterns.*
Interactive Charts & Trends
The charts below visualize current visa issuance and compare the official May 2025 cut-offs with our revised predictions for June 2025.
Chart 1: Updated Visas Issued by Region (March 2025)
This chart displays the breakdown of visas issued by region.
Chart 2: May 2025 Cut-Offs vs. Revised Predictions for June 2025
A side-by-side visual comparison of the official April bulletin numbers with our updated predictions.
Final Thoughts & Next Steps
Our new research confirms that while many trends remain consistent, some regions are now moving faster than we originally anticipated. Africa’s processing appears to have accelerated—pushing its cut-off to around 42,000—while Asia is gaining extra momentum, potentially reaching 7,500. In Europe, a buildup in Uzbekistan’s cases suggests a more significant jump to approximately 19,000 overall, with Uzbekistan’s cap increasing to about 12,000.
If your case number falls below your region’s revised cut-off, be prepared for your second notification letter (2NL). In the meantime, ensure your DS‑260 is submitted and that all supporting documents are complete. Always refer to the official government bulletin for definitive updates.
Thank you for following this weekly DV Lottery 2025 update. We remain committed to providing clear, detailed, and data‑driven insights as the process evolves. Stay prepared, keep the faith, and best of luck to all DV‑2025 selectees on your journey to U.S. permanent residency!
Best of luck!
Disclaimer:
The information presented on this page is for informational purposes only and is not an official statement or representation by any government agency. The data displayed is derived from internal analysis and is not verified by any official or governmental source. We make no guarantees as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided. Users should independently verify any details before making decisions based on this data. By using this information, you agree that we are not liable for any errors or omissions and that it should not be relied upon as legal or official guidance.
